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Short courses PhD
Scenario
Analysis
16-20 March
Workload: 2 ECTS
Faculty:
Prof. dr. Peter Heller
Assessment:
Content and objectives
Policy makers are often confronted
with policy choices that have
long-term implications. These may
have important budgetary
implications or may relate to
strategic policy decisions on
investment or trade. A typical and
potentially serious error in the way
in which policies are formulated is
to assume that the future will
represent a continuation of the
present. Yet history and experience
tell us the depth of uncertainties
about the future, and the perils of
formulating policy as if we know how
the future will develop. Scenario
analysis represents a useful tool to
help policy makers develop policies
that potentially can be more robust
to future uncertainties. The aim of
this course is to provide a hands-on
perspective to help students
understand the role that scenarios
can play in different contexts
(central government, local
government, NGOs, private sector).
The course will seek to illustrate
how scenarios are constructed, what
is their relationship to the
specific policy issues that are
being addressed, and what is their
role in shaping and implementing
policy decisions.
Literature
-
Ringland, Gill. Scenarios in
Public Polic (West Sussex,
United Kingdom: John Wiley &
Sons, Ltd., 2002)
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Peter Schwartz, The Art of the
Long View: Planning for the
Future in an Uncertain World
(New York: Doubleday, 1996
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Peter Schwartz, Inevitable
Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a
Time of Turbulence (New York,
Gotham Books, 2003)
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US National Intelligence Council,
Mapping the Global Future
(Washington DC 2005)
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Pierre Wack: “Scenarios:
Uncharted Waters Ahead”, Harvard
Business Review, 63, no. 5
(1985): pp. 72-79.
-
World Economic Forum, Global
Risk Report 2006 (Geneva
Switzerland, 2006)
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